The Viral Question That Sparked a Debate
Recently, on an American online forum, a user raised a stinging question:
“After all these years, whether they admit it or not, hasn’t China already lost the tariff war?”
That single question — like a stone dropped into calm water — stirred waves of heated discussion.
It’s a sharp question, one that goes straight to the heart of the issue. Indeed, since former President Donald Trump launched his tariff war years ago, many Chinese exporters have faced real pressure.
But what this question reveals is not China’s defeat — it exposes how many in the West still misunderstand the game being played.
They see a fistfight; China has been playing Go, a grand strategic game of patience and positioning.
So, what moves did China make to turn America’s “three strikes” into self-inflicted wounds? Let’s revisit this economic duel step by step.
America’s “Three Strikes”: A Battle It Couldn’t Win
When Trump began his tariff crusade, he had three bold goals:
- Reduce the U.S. trade deficit;
- Bring manufacturing back home;
- Protect American farmers.
All sounded patriotic — but the problem was that these goals were mutually contradictory.
Strike One: Reducing the Trade Deficit — But Hurting Consumers
Trump believed that slapping tariffs on Chinese goods would make China “pay up” and shrink the deficit.
But tariffs are essentially taxes on imports, and the bill always lands on domestic consumers, not foreign exporters.
As Xinhua noted in an April 2025 commentary, history has repeatedly shown that high tariffs “hurt both sides.”
In reality, Americans woke up to find prices on TVs, appliances, and furniture had all jumped overnight.
Trump wanted China to bleed, but he stabbed his own consumers instead.
Strike Two: Bringing Manufacturing Home — But Breaking Supply Chains
Trump dreamed of reviving America’s “Rust Belt” by forcing factories to return from China.
But modern manufacturing is a deeply interconnected global network.
An iPhone might be assembled in China, but its chip comes from the U.S., the screen from South Korea, and the lens from Japan.
Tariffs shattered this delicate balance, driving up production costs and sowing chaos across industries.
Instead of returning to the U.S., many manufacturers relocated to Vietnam and Mexico, where costs were lower and trade friction less severe.
Strike Three: Protecting Farmers — But Killing the Soybean Market
This was perhaps the most ironic chapter.
After the U.S. imposed tariffs, China retaliated by halting soybean imports — devastating American farmers.
China had been America’s largest soybean buyer, and the loss was immediate.
According to Bloomberg (Dec 2024), Trump’s first trade war caused $11 billion in losses to U.S. soybean growers, with exports to China plunging 79% in just two years.
Meanwhile, Brazilian farmers expanded production and permanently captured China’s demand.
Trump didn’t just “hurt his enemies” — he crippled his own political base in the Midwest.
China’s “Silk Needle”: Quiet, Precise, and Deadly
While the U.S. wielded its tariff hammer recklessly, China played a game of strategic patience.
Its countermeasures were not impulsive — they were years in the making.
Step One: Preparation Long Before the Storm
Contrary to Western assumptions, China didn’t start reacting in 2018 — it began planning as early as 2017.
According to Pang Sen, president of the China Economic System Reform Research Association, Beijing had anticipated a tariff war and reduced its dependence on the U.S. market well in advance.
Within a few years, China’s trade reliance on the U.S. fell from over 20% to around 12%, giving it the confidence to stand firm when tariffs hit.
This foresight became the foundation for China’s ability to declare — and stand by — its promise to “fight to the end.”
Step Two: The Art of Timing
If U.S. tariffs were a carpet bombing, China’s responses were surgical strikes.
For example, when China announced its first countermeasures, it did so at 6 p.m. during the Qingming Festival holiday — corresponding to 5 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time.
That timing was brilliant:
- Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets were closed — shielding domestic investors.
- U.S. traders woke up to a surprise shock — maximizing psychological impact.
- The U.S. government had almost no time to prepare a stabilizing message.
It wasn’t just economic warfare; it was information warfare.
Step Three: Winning the Moral High Ground
Alongside the countermeasures, China released a White Paper on Sino–U.S. Economic and Trade Relations, clearly explaining its position with data and logic.
This move reframed the global narrative.
It painted China as rational and restrained, facing off against an unpredictable bully.
In the court of global opinion, Beijing won the moral battle even before the economic one was over.
Counting the Real Costs: Who Actually Lost?
So, has China really lost the tariff war? Let’s look at two scoreboards — economic and strategic.
Economically, yes, China — as the export-heavy side — endured more short-term losses.
But the U.S. suffered deeper, structural damage.
As economist Liao Qun of CITIC Bank noted, America depends more on China in services and investment than China does on the U.S. in goods.
Moreover, China’s vast domestic market and complete industrial chain acted as a shock absorber, while the increasingly hollowed-out U.S. economy was far more fragile.
Strategically, none of Trump’s three goals were achieved:
- The trade deficit didn’t shrink.
- Manufacturing didn’t return.
- Farmers suffered historic losses.
China, meanwhile, used the pressure to accelerate technological independence, expand Belt and Road markets, and strengthen domestic circulation — all long-term strategic goals that would have taken far longer without external pressure.
The Verdict: A Pyrrhic War the U.S. Never Needed
Perhaps China never aimed to “win” this war — it simply refused to lose.
But when one side punches three times and each blow lands on its own face, the result speaks for itself.
The so-called “tariff war” didn’t break China — it reshaped it.
And the U.S., blinded by short-term politics, ended up proving China’s resilience to the world.
References
- Bloomberg, December 2024
- Xinhua News, April 2025
- Observer Network, June 2025
