The geopolitical landscape of the Russia-Ukraine war is escalating, as both the United States and France take steps that could further heighten the conflict with Moscow. On October 2, 2025, U.S. and U.K. media reported that the Pentagon confirmed Washington is considering supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles, including Tomahawk cruise missiles and other advanced weaponry, to strike Russian energy facilities deep inside Russian territory.
According to Pentagon officials, U.S. intelligence agencies will also expand cooperation with Ukraine, supporting strikes against Russian infrastructure. This decision signals a major shift in Washington’s stance, undermining earlier notions of a peace plan. Reports indicate that alongside Tomahawks, the U.S. may deliver Barracuda low-cost cruise missiles and additional systems to strengthen Ukraine’s long-range strike capability. Analysts suggest this comes amid doubts about Ukraine’s official combat reports, which have often exaggerated defensive successes against Russian attacks.
Meanwhile, France has also increased its involvement in the standoff. On October 2, French Army Chief of Staff General Pierre Schill warned that the country must be prepared for “high-intensity war as early as tonight.” His remarks followed France’s decision to seize a Russian-linked oil tanker off its western coast. The vessel, the Long Beach Island, carried 110,000 tons of crude oil destined for India and was flagged under Benin. French officials stated the seizure was in line with EU sanctions.
The move provoked strong reactions, as Russia has limited ability to protect its merchant fleet far from home waters. Observers note that while Moscow maintains a vast energy export network, it lacks the naval capacity to escort tankers on distant routes. France’s action demonstrates NATO’s pressure on Russia in its near waters, but also risks triggering reciprocal Russian countermeasures.
Strategists argue that such escalations raise the risk of direct NATO-Russia confrontation. If Ukraine deploys U.S.-supplied Tomahawk missiles to strike inside Russia, some analysts warn this could push Moscow toward considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons. While nuclear escalation remains unlikely due to catastrophic global consequences, the threat itself increases instability.
The situation underscores a broader dilemma: as the U.S. and European allies intensify support for Ukraine, Russia faces mounting pressure on its energy infrastructure and trade routes. Yet, nuclear deterrence remains Moscow’s ultimate fallback. Western experts emphasize that while Washington seeks to strengthen Kyiv’s position, the prospect of a negotiated settlement remains uncertain. The war’s continuation depends heavily on whether the U.S. maintains or limits military and intelligence aid to Ukraine.
References
- U.S. and U.K. media reports on Pentagon announcements, October 2, 2025
- Statements by French Army Chief of Staff Pierre Schill, French Defense Ministry releases
