In recent years, China’s population issue has become a serious concern, with the number of births decreasing year by year. From 9.56 million births in 2022 to 9.02 million in 2023, only to rise back to 9.54 million in 2024, yet the total population still decreased by 1.39 million, and the aging population ratio climbed to 22%.
This issue isn’t just about cold data; it also involves the economy, social security, and a multitude of other issues. While the nation struggles, a small county-level city in Hubei, Tianmen, suddenly rose to prominence. In 2024, the birth rate surged by 17%, from 6,004 births the previous year to 7,217. This marks the first time in eight years that the city has reversed its declining birth rate. The news shocked the country, and people began asking: what’s the cause? Is it really just about throwing money at the problem?
Tianmen’s Economic and Policy Efforts to Boost Birth Rate
Tianmen, a city with a population of 1.1 million and a 2024 GDP of 78.5 billion yuan, isn’t exactly wealthy but maintains a stable economy. The key change came in 2023 when Tianmen introduced serious measures to boost fertility. In September, five fertility measures were launched, later upgraded in March 2024 to seven initiatives that were implemented starting from April 1, 2024, until May 2027. These policies are not just slogans—they are backed by real financial investments, with over 300 million yuan allocated for a three-year plan to encourage more children.
The financial incentives are quite substantial. For families with a second child, there’s a one-time reward of 2,300 yuan, plus 800 yuan per month in child-rearing subsidies until the child is three years old, adding up to 31,100 yuan. For a third child, the rewards are even greater, starting at 3,300 yuan with 1,000 yuan per month, accumulating to 70,400 yuan. For rural residents, private sector employees, and flexible workers, additional subsidies are provided to help mothers who stay at home with their children.
Health and Social Benefits
On the healthcare side, assisted reproductive projects are now covered by insurance, with subsidies for procedures like egg retrieval, artificial insemination, and IVF. Prenatal genetic screenings are discounted, and tests like the Down syndrome screening are free. The policies also offer support for women in the workforce, with priority in job evaluations, shorter timeframes for promotions, and extra points in assessments.
The procedures for registering newborns have been simplified, with a one-stop service to handle birth certificates, household registrations, and insurance enrollments all before leaving the hospital. For third-child mothers, special perks include flowers, honor cards, housing vouchers, one-stop service, and free transportation.
Housing Incentives to Boost Birth Rate and the Local Economy
Housing subsidies are also a significant part of the program. Tianmen offers 60,000 yuan in housing vouchers for families with a second child and 120,000 yuan for families with a third child. The housing market also benefits from these policies, as Tianmen’s real estate sector saw significant growth in 2024, selling 9,015 units and generating over 5 billion yuan in taxes. This, in turn, has stimulated consumption in local markets, boosting the broader economy.
In total, over 10,000 families have shown interest in purchasing homes, ensuring a stable housing market for at least five years. This policy has achieved two goals at once: increasing the birth rate and revitalizing the local economy.
Sustainable Growth and Future Prospects
However, the path forward may not be as smooth. Although Tianmen has made significant strides, challenges remain, including infrastructure issues, labor shortages, and the potential sustainability of these financial incentives. While the short-term effects have been promising, the real question is whether these changes can be maintained and whether they will result in long-term, sustainable growth.
The impact of Tianmen’s policies has been noticeable, with birth rates rising by 17% in 2024 and further growth projected in 2025. However, growth has already slowed in the second half of 2025, with a 5.6% increase in births. Other regions have begun studying Tianmen’s approach, with over 100 cities visiting the area to learn about its subsidy programs.
At the national level, China will begin offering child-rearing subsidies starting January 2025. While Tianmen’s approach is a test case, it provides valuable insights into how financial incentives can help raise the birth rate.
Long-Term Impact of Fertility Policies
Ultimately, Tianmen’s experience demonstrates that financial incentives can effectively address some of the challenges associated with low birth rates. However, these policies are not a panacea. To truly solve the population problem, broader reforms in education, healthcare, workplace equality, and pension systems are necessary. The long-term sustainability of Tianmen’s approach will depend on balancing financial support with structural changes in society.
As for other regions, replicating Tianmen’s success requires careful consideration of local circumstances. Coastal cities with high housing prices may need larger subsidies, while poorer areas may need to focus more on services. Tianmen’s example offers a glimpse of what can be achieved, but whether it can be replicated on a larger scale remains to be seen.
Conclusion
Tianmen’s drastic increase in birth rates, driven by generous financial incentives, provides a glimpse into the potential effectiveness of targeted policy interventions. However, it is clear that while short-term successes can be achieved, sustainable long-term growth requires broader structural reforms. Tianmen’s policies are a valuable case study, but the real test will come in the years to follow.
