Mexico, which had repeatedly stated it would “never choose sides between China and the U.S.,” has now shifted its stance. On September 3, 2025, following a meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, the Mexican leader announced that her government was considering imposing tariffs on countries without trade agreements with Mexico. She made it clear: “China is one of them.”
When asked which specific industries from China would face tariffs, Sheinbaum replied: “We will announce this at the appropriate time.”
On September 10, 2025, the Mexican government proposed new tariffs on about 1,400 key imported goods from countries without trade agreements (including China, South Korea, and India). The plan, tied to Mexico’s 2026 budget proposal, would impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on products worth $52 billion, covering industries such as automobiles, textiles, plastics, steel, clothing, toys, shoes, furniture, paper, and glass.
Which Products Will Face Tariffs?
The new tariffs will affect 1,371 tariff codes, accounting for 16.8% of Mexico’s total tariff codes. The proposal includes rates of 10%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, and 50%, effective until December 31, 2026, with a possible extension.
Key affected products:
- Light automobiles: Raised from 20% to 50%. Chinese cars already hold 18.1% of Mexico’s market share.
- Auto parts: Engines, transmissions, chassis, etc., taxed from 10% to 50% depending on type.
- Motorcycles: 35% tariff.
- Steel products: Bars, pipes, rolled steel – 35%.
- Toys: 35%.
- Aluminum products: 10–50%.
- Footwear: 10–50%.
- Textiles and fabrics: 10–50%.
- Sanitary ware: Sinks, toilets, etc., 10–50%.
- Personal care products: Shampoo and hygiene goods, 10–50%.
- Pumps and fans: Mechanical equipment, 10–50%.
Although this proposal still requires congressional approval, the ruling party holds a majority, making passage highly likely.
The Expected Impact
Mexico’s Ministry of Economy stated the tariffs would primarily affect countries without trade agreements—particularly China, South Korea, India, Indonesia, Russia, Thailand, and Turkey.
Mexico currently has free trade agreements with over 50 countries, including the U.S., Canada, the EU, and Japan. Among non-FTA nations, China is Mexico’s largest exporter.
The government estimates the new tariffs will impact 8.6% of Mexico’s imports and help protect 325,000 jobs in industrial and manufacturing sectors.
Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said:
“These goods already have tariffs; we are only raising them to the WTO-permitted ceiling.”
He had previously opposed tariffs, arguing they harm growth and fuel inflation.
Analysts suggest Mexico’s move is largely a response to U.S. pressure. Bloomberg reported in late August that the Trump administration had urged Mexico to mirror U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports.
Finance Minister Edgar Amador admitted the measure is tied to ongoing and future trade negotiations within the USMCA framework.
John Price, Managing Director of Americas Market Intelligence, said Mexico exports large numbers of cars to the U.S. and must balance protecting its economy with responding to U.S. demands.
Economist Gabriela Siller from Banco Base noted on social media:
“The tariffs serve two purposes: increasing revenue and signaling goodwill to Trump.”
She added that Chinese cars will be hit the hardest—with a 50% tariff compared to the current 15–20%.
Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows Mexico has surpassed Russia as China’s largest car export market. In the first half of 2025, Chinese car exports to Mexico grew nearly 25% year-on-year.
China is Mexico’s second-largest trading partner (after the U.S.), while Mexico ranks as China’s second-largest partner in Latin America.
In 2024, bilateral trade reached $109.4 billion:
- China’s exports to Mexico: $90.2 billion (mainly electronics, kitchenware, auto parts).
- Mexico’s exports to China: $19.1 billion (mainly crude oil, electrical equipment, medical instruments).
References
- Bloomberg, August 2025: U.S. pressure on Mexico to raise tariffs on Chinese imports
- China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, 2025 trade report
- Mexico Ministry of Economy official statement, September 2025
- Banco Base economic analysis, Gabriela Siller, 2025
