At the foot of the Himalayas, Nepal is playing a high-stakes gamble for its future!
Long overshadowed by India, Nepal now faces the looming threat of becoming “the next Sikkim.”
However, when the PLA aircraft pierced the sky and arrived in Kathmandu, everything changed.
This was not just a military exercise, but Nepal’s signal to the world of its desperate fight for survival—a geopolitical balancing act is now reaching its boiling point!
PLA’s Arrival in Nepal
This joint training exercise was no ordinary military exchange.
Chinese troops held a grand send-off ceremony at a base in Tibet, showing how seriously this joint exercise was taken. Compared to previous exercises, this one’s duration was longer, and the training content was more tailored to real-world demands.
The reason Nepal is so eager to enhance military cooperation with China is due to enormous survival pressure.
Indian expansionists, inheriting the colonialist legacy in South Asia, have become Nepal’s primary external enemy.
On September 5, a Chinese PLA aircraft landed in Kathmandu, marking the fifth army-to-army joint exercise between China and Nepal, codenamed “Everest Friendship 2025.”
The Chinese troops, departing from Lhasa Gonggar Airport in Tibet, were met with an impressive send-off, underscoring the significance of the event.
This joint training exercise, lasting 11 days, is much larger in scale and duration than previous ones. Over the course of the training, Chinese and Nepalese troops worked together, sharing knowledge and practical experience.
The training content was highly practical, including counter-terrorism drills, indoor clearance, humanitarian rescue operations, and peacekeeping experience exchange.
A Chinese commander stated that this was an opportunity to enhance counter-terrorism capabilities, aimed at sharing advanced techniques and experience.
This training directly addressed Nepal’s urgent security needs, given the internal threat of separatist forces and complex external security challenges.
The Tragedy of Sikkim and Treaty Shackles
Nestled in the folds of the Himalayas lies Nepal, a landlocked nation caught in the ever-changing geopolitics of the region.
Its geographical location ensures that its fate is forever tied to the global balance of power, where every diplomatic engagement and military exercise becomes a matter of survival.
In 1950, the “Peace and Friendship Treaty” signed with India has been considered by many Nepalese as the root of India’s intervention in their defense and diplomacy.
The treaty’s provisions for “mutual security assurance” have been exploited by Indian expansionists to limit Nepal’s arms purchases, with Nepal needing India’s consent to buy weapons.
Another clause in the treaty, concerning “ethnic treatment for other nationalities within each other’s territories,” allowed for significant Indian migration into Nepal’s southern Terai region.
This has been viewed as a form of planned population replacement, threatening the indigenous population and the integrity of Nepal’s territorial boundaries.
The Sikkim tragedy in 1975 serves as a constant reminder to the Nepalese. India did not send soldiers but used internal turmoil in Sikkim to pressure the king, eventually annexing it through a so-called “referendum.”
Nepal remains vigilant because of this.
Nepalese politician Prem Sagar Baidyal raised a fundamental question in late August: “If not for China’s support, could Nepal maintain its independence?”
This concern is not unfounded.
After the 1962 Sino-Indian conflict, India tried to establish military bases in Nepal to extend its strategic influence.
It was China’s then Foreign Minister Chen Yi’s public statement—”If any country attacks Nepal, China will retaliate”—that is believed to have prevented Nepal from repeating the Sikkim scenario.
The Giant Neighbor to the South and the Balancing Act in the North
Political and military influence is pervasive, and it often comes with “legal backing.”
But that is not the full story; economic constraints are also putting Nepal in a “chokehold.”
Recently, Nepalese Prime Minister Oli made a surprising move, breaking from tradition by visiting China instead of India for his first foreign visit in 2024. He even decided to attend China’s National Day military parade after Japan advised against sending high-ranking officials.
According to reports from the Times of Nepal on September 1, Oli’s move is more about seeking tangible benefits and a better future.
Nepal’s foreign policy choices have never been entirely free. The pressure from the south, especially India, has been ever-present.
Despite the historical and cultural ties between the two countries, the relationship is complex and tense.
This tension comes from an almost suffocating dependence.
Consider this: 90% of Nepal’s fuel supply and 70% of its imports must pass through India’s ports and transit routes. This makes Nepal incredibly vulnerable.
India controls most of Nepal’s industrial, trade, and financial sectors, with Indian capitalists controlling around 80% of Nepal’s industrial and trade sectors, turning Nepal into a dumping ground for Indian goods.
The unequal trade structure means that Nepal exports low-value primary goods while importing high-value industrial products. It even supplies cheap labor, including soldiers in the Indian army.
This economic stranglehold caused Nepal significant pain in 2015 when India imposed an economic blockade that resulted in a 1.5% GDP decline. The economic pressure severely restricted the country’s development.
More disturbing is the exploitation of Nepal’s water resources. Through various agreements, India has claimed large portions of Nepal’s rich water resources, undermining Nepal’s sovereignty over its own resources.
Internal Chaos and Lost Expectations
The external pressures are heavy, but Nepal’s internal situation is equally troubling. Since 2008, Nepal has had 19 changes in government over 17 years, leading to political instability.
Corruption in politics has worsened the people’s living conditions. The public’s initial expectations for democracy have been eroded by the power struggles of politicians.
This extreme disappointment led to the bizarre “monarchy restoration” movements in March and May this year. Thousands of supporters marched in Kathmandu, calling for the return of the monarchy.
However, the leaders of this movement are rather ironic figures, some of whom have previously criticized the last king’s greed and selfishness.
Friendship Under the Everest and a Firm Response
Amidst these internal and external challenges, Nepal has embarked on a difficult strategic breakthrough.
It has actively diversified its foreign relations, with China emerging as a key balancing force.
According to an interview with Nepal’s Ambassador to China, Oli, China has become Nepal’s second-largest trading partner. In 2024, the bilateral trade volume between China and Nepal exceeded $2.1 billion, increasing by 22%.
Under the Belt and Road Initiative, the construction of the China-Nepal railway project is breaking Nepal’s long-standing geographical isolation and injecting new economic vitality into the landlocked nation.
Moreover, China has provided funding and technical support in areas like energy cooperation and climate change.
In contrast to India’s unequal relationship, China has always respected Nepal’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, maintaining non-interference in its domestic affairs.
This mutually beneficial cooperation has provided Nepal with valuable diplomatic space and development opportunities.
With deepening political trust and economic cooperation, military security guarantees have followed.
Conclusion
The arrival of the PLA sends a clear message to the outside world: Nepal is not fighting alone.
Local media openly admitted: “Without China’s support, we could become the next Sikkim.”
This statement reflects the deep-seated anxieties and practical decisions of a squeezed nation.
Geopolitics is like a high-stakes poker game, and the survival of smaller countries often depends on balancing the interests of great powers.
Nepal does not want to become another Sikkim, nor does it want to be anyone’s vassal.
Its cooperation with China is not just a new chapter in the “friendship beneath Mount Everest,” but also a firm stance for the nation’s survival.
The model of China-Nepal cooperation proves that international relations can be based on equality and mutual benefit, rather than traditional power struggles.
This spirit of striving for independence and self-determination deserves the respect and emulation of all countries fighting for survival in the cracks.
