China’s population trends have entered a critical stage. In 2022, the death toll reached 10.41 million, rising to 11.1 million in 2023, and in 2024 the figure stood at 10.93 million. While last year’s number was slightly lower than the previous year, the overall trend remains negative: only 9.54 million births occurred, leaving the natural growth rate at -0.99‰.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (published January 17, 2025), China’s total population by the end of 2024 dropped to 1.408 billion, down 1.39 million compared to the previous year. This marks the third consecutive year of population decline, a phenomenon driven by low fertility and accelerated aging.
Recent Mortality Trends
- 2022: 10.41 million deaths, 9.56 million births, death rate 7.37‰. China entered population decline for the first time in decades, with a net loss of 850,000 people.
- 2023: 11.1 million deaths, 9.02 million births, death rate 7.87‰, natural growth rate -1.48‰, population dropped by 2.08 million.
- 2024: 10.93 million deaths, 9.54 million births, death rate 7.76‰. A slight rebound in births, partly due to the “Year of the Dragon” effect, but still unable to offset deaths.
The bigger picture shows a steady rise in mortality since 2014, when the death rate was only 7.12‰. The key driver is aging: in 2024, over 310 million people were aged 60+, accounting for 22% of the population.
Why Deaths Are Rising
1、Aging of the Baby Boom Generation
People born in the 1950s–70s baby boom are now entering old age.
This large demographic cohort is pushing deaths into a sustained high phase.
2、Longevity and Concentrated Mortality
Life expectancy has risen to 78.2 years from 49 years in 1949.
Medical advances delayed deaths, but they now cluster in later years.
3、Low Fertility Intensifies the Decline
Current fertility rate hovers around 1.0, far below replacement level 2.1.
High housing, education, and lifestyle costs deter young families from having more children.
4、Regional Differences
Eastern provinces (e.g., Shanghai, Guangdong) see higher mortality due to earlier aging.
Western regions maintain higher fertility, but healthcare access limits life expectancy.
Looking Ahead
- 2025–2030: Deaths will remain 10+ million annually, climbing further as aging deepens.
- 2030: Seniors may make up 25% of the population, with annual deaths surpassing 12 million.
- 2060 Peak: Forecasts suggest annual deaths could hit 19 million as the 1960s generation passes away.
- 2100: UN projections show China’s total population shrinking to 767 million, nearly halving from today.
Policy Challenges and Responses
- Boosting Births: China’s three-child policy, longer maternity leave, and subsidies have had limited effect. Experts like Liang Jianzhang argue for stronger cash incentives and reduced education/housing costs.
- Elderly Care: With 310 million seniors in 2024, demand for community care, healthcare, and the “silver economy” (estimated at 50 trillion RMB) is skyrocketing.
- Economic Impact: Aging shifts labor from manufacturing to services, while pension and healthcare burdens intensify.
The coming decades will test China’s ability to balance its shrinking workforce with rising elderly care needs.
