The “Rare Earth War” Reaches a Turning Point
After more than a week of escalating confrontation, the U.S.–China “rare earth war” has taken an unexpected turn. Despite Trump’s administration rallying 33 allies to pressure China, Beijing’s stance has remained firm—and now the cracks are showing among America’s partners.
France and Canada have sent senior officials to Beijing seeking cooperation, New Zealand awarded a major shipbuilding contract to a Chinese firm, and Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers publicly rejected Trump’s “decoupling” rhetoric. Even the Netherlands—first to seize a Chinese semiconductor company—has since sought dialogue after Beijing’s export restrictions hit back hard.
In short, Washington’s plan to encircle China with allied pressure has collapsed before it even began.
Beijing’s Counterstrikes Take Effect
China’s reciprocal measures have inflicted real pain on U.S. industries.
One of the most visible flashpoints came when the U.S. cruise ship RIVIERA refused to dock at Shanghai to avoid paying a special port fee of 11.67 million RMB. The result was chaos: over 800 passenger complaints were filed as itineraries were disrupted.
The same dilemma now faces Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line. These U.S. cruise giants can’t afford China’s new port fees—yet abandoning the Chinese market means losing access to over 3 million passengers annually.
Worse still, Chinese and European cruise companies are rapidly filling the market gap, eroding American firms’ competitive edge. With China now the world’s major maritime destination, U.S. vessels simply cannot avoid Chinese ports in the long run.
America’s Agriculture Feels the Squeeze
The trade pressure isn’t confined to shipping. U.S. soybean farmers are in deep trouble.
Recently, an Illinois grain storage facility collapsed, spilling over 816 tons of soybeans—a grim symbol of a sector in crisis.
At nearly the same time, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Rollins admitted during a White House briefing that China has not purchased a single U.S. soybean this year.
Washington has tried to cushion the blow with $13 billion in subsidies, but that only covers 2023–2024 losses. With the federal government shutdown now in its 19th day, further subsidy payments have been frozen.
Rollins has floated the idea of expanding soybean exports to Japan, but the numbers don’t add up: Japan accounts for just 4% of U.S. soybean exports, while China once took 55–60%. That market loss is impossible to replace.
Trump’s Rare Admission of Defeat
Facing mounting economic pain, Donald Trump has finally softened his tone. In a recent media interview, he admitted that “China’s strength is formidable and commands respect.”
In essence, Trump was telling the American public: we can’t win this fight.
He further emphasized that “the U.S. and China have a good relationship” and that a “fair and just agreement” is needed.
Shortly after, Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer held online talks with Chinese officials, announcing plans for in-person negotiations next week in Malaysia. High-level meetings between the two nations’ leaders are also reportedly being arranged for South Korea.
A Strategic Shift, Not the Endgame
The pattern is now clear: Trump has played all his cards, yet China’s countermeasures have caused more pain in the West than in Beijing.
While new talks may temporarily ease tensions, Washington’s leverage is waning, and China’s strategic resilience is on full display.
As this round of the great power game winds down, the real question is not whether Trump will compromise—but how far he will go.
The next phase of this geopolitical duel may define the future of U.S.–China relations for years to come.
References
- Financial Times, October 2024
- Xinhua News Agency Reports, October 2024
- U.S. Department of Agriculture Briefing, October 2024
