In recent years, the topic of China’s economic structural transformation has been widely discussed, especially as the real estate industry, once a booming sector, has now lost its luster. The question of which industry will become the next “economic pillar” has become a national concern.
Over the past 20 years, real estate has supported the dreams of countless families, accelerated the pace of urbanization, and facilitated the migration of large numbers of rural workers to the cities.
However, with tightening policies, slowed population mobility, and frequent news of real estate companies collapsing, we must admit that “housing is for living, not for speculation” is no longer just a slogan but a reality that has truly changed the lives of Chinese people.
So, after real estate, what will be China’s largest pillar industry?
Some people say emerging industries, like new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence, are the future. Others are optimistic about the return of manufacturing. But it’s important not to overlook the basic concerns of farmers and ordinary citizens, which have always been centered around land and elderly care.
Cities may be thriving, but the countryside still serves as the foundation for tens of millions of people’s lives.
The Three Major Challenges Faced by Rural People
I’ve interacted with many friends from rural areas, and they generally face three major challenges:
1. Declining Land Revenue
While working outside the village may offer higher income, cultivating the family’s land for crops doesn’t generate enough profit, with some even choosing to leave their land fallow.
Some areas have attempted land transfer programs, but in practice, various conflicts arise, and no one is willing to give up the land that their ancestors have left behind.
2. The Aging Population Problem
The traditional model of “raising children to support the elderly” is quickly weakening.
With young people moving to the cities, elderly people are left to live alone in the village. Most of the time, the village is quiet, with only the sounds of chickens and dogs and the flickering of streetlights at night.
Now, rural elderly care can be understood as “one person eats, and the whole family stays full; two people being cared for becomes a problem.”
With more empty-nest elderly people, mutual care and support have actually decreased. Occasionally, neighbors may help, but when faced with major illnesses or feelings of loneliness, most people don’t have many ways to cope.
3. Unequal Access to Education and Healthcare Resources
Many rural schools have closed, and children must travel to towns to attend school, which is far and unsafe, making it a burden for the elderly to escort them.
Minor illnesses can be dealt with, but for serious illnesses, going to a big hospital in the county requires a long journey, and even then, there are often long waiting times.
These difficulties faced by rural people actually reflect the true situation of ordinary citizens—unable to afford housing in the cities, unable to earn money from their land, and relying on children for elderly care, yet those children are no longer around.
“House prices aren’t rising, and land doesn’t make money anymore”—this has become a real question for many families in rural areas and small towns.
The Need for Upgraded Social Services
So, when we discuss the “next pillar industry,” we should focus on upgrading social services and ensuring people’s livelihoods.
Currently, more and more county towns and rural areas are promoting intelligent elderly care and community management, combining industry and services. This may very well become the backbone of China’s future economy.
Elderly care, medical services, and the integration of rural industries are emerging trends. But objectively, the transition period will have growing pains, with both ideological gaps and practical issues.
We shouldn’t deny the historical contributions of real estate, but we must also acknowledge the inevitable decline of this industry.
China is vast, and issues such as aging population and urban-rural disparities cannot be solved by a single industry.
A New Pillar Industry for the Future
In the future, China’s “new pillar industry” won’t just be about which industry makes the most money, but whether it can ensure that families in every corner of the country can live with peace of mind and hope.
Personally, I think it’s better to focus not just on which industry makes the most profit but on how to better secure elderly care, increase the value of land, and make services more accessible to everyday life.
Perhaps, in this ever-changing era, we need a reliable “pillar” — prioritizing people’s livelihoods.
I hope that rural people, especially the empty-nest elderly, can find warmth in the transformation of new industries.
This, perhaps, is the true Chinese Dream.
May we all face the future with peace of mind, knowing that whether it’s the countryside or the city, both are home.
