Every morning, the Chinese breakfast table is lively—oil sticks with soy milk, steamed buns with congee, and by lunchtime, it’s braised pork with rice, followed by a hotpot dinner. But behind this daily ritual lies an interesting question: both China and India have populations of 1.4 billion, yet China buys over a hundred million tons of grain every year from all over the world, while India can export large quantities of rice and wheat.
Data from 2024 shows that China imported 105 million tons of soybeans, accounting for over half of the global trade volume, while India exported 22 million tons of rice, capturing 40% of the global market share.
So, what’s going on? The answer lies in the food on both countries’ tables, the pigs in their pens, the unseen farmland, and the policies at play.
Why Does China’s “Meat Plate” Depend on Global Soybeans?
To understand why China imports so much grain, we need to take a look at the meat on our plates.
In 2024, China’s pork production data isn’t specific, but the breeding sows reached 40.78 million, close to the upper limit of capacity. These pigs consume vast amounts of feed every day.
The pigs’ favorite food is soybean meal, which comes primarily from soybeans. However, China’s domestic soybean production is only around 20 million tons, far from enough, meaning imports are necessary to fill the gap.
In 2024, 71.1% of the soybeans China imported came from Brazil, and 21.1% came from the United States. After processing into soybean meal, most of it becomes animal feed, while a small portion is used for oil extraction or making soy sauce.
Whether it’s soy sauce on supermarket shelves, soybean oil in the kitchen, or braised pork on our dinner tables, there’s a chance they all come from Brazilian soybeans.
Besides feeding livestock, industrial grain consumption is also quietly rising. Corn is used in alcohol production, soybeans for seasonings, and even biofuels are starting to use food crops.
In 2024, China’s total grain production exceeded 1.4 trillion jin, with a per capita yield of over 500 kilograms, and the self-sufficiency rate for staple grains exceeded 95%. We’re not worried about rice or steamed buns.
But to make sure everyone eats well, China needs to import “non-staple grains.”
Just like cooking at home: while the staples are enough, to make a feast, you still need to buy meat and seasonings from the market. That’s why China imports grain.
But the country has also planned for “what if.” While buying grain, it’s also planting it globally.
COFCO (China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation) has operations in over 40 countries, and its soybean plantations in Brazil cover more than 600,000 hectares. In South Africa, they operate the largest soybean crushing plant.
China’s domestic grain reserves have reached 880 million tons, enough to feed the country for a whole year. This is like having a fully stocked fridge at home, giving peace of mind.
Policies also play a role. In 2023, wheat imports were capped at 9.636 million tons and corn at 7.2 million tons, ensuring demand is met while also supporting local farmers’ motivation to grow grain.
China also diversifies its sources. Soybeans come from Brazil, the U.S., and Argentina, and corn from Ukraine and the U.S., ensuring no one can hold China hostage.
Agricultural technology is also advancing. In 2024, the comprehensive mechanization rate for crops exceeded 74.3%. It’s no surprise to see drones sowing seeds and satellites monitoring soil moisture.
In terms of agricultural research, China has made significant investments. The market share of the white-feather broiler chicken breed exceeds 25%, and these scientific advancements help ensure a stable supply of staple foods, allowing China to confidently import feed grains.
So, China doesn’t buy grain because we don’t have enough to eat, but rather to ensure we eat better, with more variety. This is driven by consumer demand for better food and is also part of China’s food security strategy.
India’s “Export Ledger”
Now let’s turn to India, another country with a population of 1.4 billion, which has managed to export vast quantities of grain.
First, India’s “eating habits” are much more efficient in terms of grain consumption.
Indians consume only 5 kilograms of meat per person annually, which is one-twelfth of what the average Chinese consumes. This means they don’t need to convert grains into animal feed.
Additionally, many people in India follow religious beliefs that restrict the consumption of beef and pork. Their meals mainly consist of rice and flatbread, so the grain goes directly into people’s bellies without passing through livestock.
In 2020, India’s per capita grain consumption was only 181 kilograms, far lower than China’s 470 kilograms. It’s not that they don’t want to eat more, but many people can’t afford to.
India’s farmland conditions have also been helpful. With 160 million hectares of arable land, India has 40 million hectares more than China, and the fertile land in the Ganges Plain allows for two to three growing seasons per year.
Although the yield per hectare for rice is only 4.5 tons, compared to China’s 6.5 tons, the sheer amount of land and people means that in 2022, India’s total grain production reached 310 million tons, enough to feed the population and still have surplus.
India’s “Green Revolution” of the 1970s introduced high-yield wheat varieties, and hybrid rice is now being promoted, further boosting production and laying the foundation for exports.
However, India’s export strategy is somewhat “out of necessity.”
In 2024, India’s agricultural export value surpassed 50 billion USD, with rice accounting for a quarter of that. Rice exports are a key source of foreign exchange for India.
They not only export high-quality rice but also sell broken rice to poor countries. This broken rice is cheaper on the international market and perfectly meets the needs of low-income countries.
To stabilize the domestic market, India has a Public Distribution System (PDS), where more than 100 million people receive subsidized grain each month. This ensures the poor have food to eat while making extra grain available for export.
However, this policy has its problems. In 2022, India suspended wheat exports due to fluctuations in international grain prices, causing headaches for buyers.
India’s agricultural weaknesses are also clear. 10% of people control 70% of the farmland, and farmers don’t have the freedom to choose what to grow or how much to sell.
The mechanization rate is less than 50%, farming relies on manual labor, irrigation is dependent on the weather, and agricultural research spending is only a fifth of China’s. These factors limit India’s grain production growth.
Most of India’s exports are raw agricultural products, with little value-added processing, leading to low profits. It’s like selling freshly picked cabbage directly, while China is already selling pickled cabbage.
So, India’s grain exports are more about “survival,” while China’s grain imports are about “thriving.”
Different Paths
With the same 1.4 billion people, China’s imports and India’s exports are driven by two entirely different development paths.
China’s imports are a proactive choice to upgrade consumption. As the demand for meat, oil, and seasonings increases, China has to procure feed and industrial grains globally.
But this is supported by strong self-sufficiency in staple grains, with a 2024 grain production of over 1.4 trillion jin, a per capita yield of over 500 kilograms, and 880 million tons of reserves. Through global planting, diversified imports, and agricultural technology, China has firmly secured its food safety, and every grain purchased serves the purpose of “eating better.”
India’s exports, on the other hand, are driven by necessity. Low meat consumption and income levels limit domestic demand for grain, leaving them dependent on exports for foreign exchange.
While India has plenty of arable land and rising production, its agricultural modernization is low, and farmers earn little. Most of the grain they export is raw, with little processing, yielding low profits.
The PDS system guarantees food for the poor but also masks the insufficient domestic demand. This contrast between “survival-based exports” and “development-based imports” reflects the differences in the economic levels, consumption structures, and agricultural policies of the two countries.
These two models aren’t necessarily right or wrong, but both highlight the importance of food security. China uses the strategy of “staple self-sufficiency + global procurement + technological support” to ensure a prosperous life while safeguarding its food security. India, under resource constraints, has found a way to earn foreign exchange.
In the end, food is not just about eating; it’s also about development. China’s global grain purchases are about securing “development rights,” while India’s grain exports are about securing “survival rights.” This may well be the most accurate food ledger for these two populous giants.
